A blogger named Donna Bogatin raises an interesting point in pointing to an iPod related poll on Facebook, but I don’t agree with her strongly negative take.
She points out that only 7% of respondents said yes. While 63% said no, with the rest being some form of undecided.
This actually looks like great news for Apple. The 7% of yes repondents represent ~140,000 of Facebook’s 20M users. At $500 a pop, that’s 70M in revenue for Apple (perhaps more if they get a kickback from AT&T, something that could be as much as 50% of the cost of service). That 7% also represents people who are apparently ready to buy soon. That’s a significantly higher penetration rate than the 1% Apple is shooting for in the overall mobile phone market (at least for the time being).
Just as interesting, most of the undecideds, which make up 30% of the respondants, also look like likely future buyers. 9% want a choice of carriers beyond AT&T, which will probably come in the next year or two. 20% want a lower price, which is also sure to come. Only 1% are waiting to see what their friends do.
It’s actually hard to understand the point of her post. The headline suggests it’s about the poll results. But most of the text is a complaint about polling methodologies. I’m not going to argue the latter. The poll only reached a self-selected ~1000 out of the 20M or so Facebook users, so you have to be careful about putting to much state in the results. Still, I think they are interesting.
Elsewhere:
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